Associate Professor Dr Markus Gehring serves on our new CCE Advisory Group. He is a Fellow and Director of Studies in Law at Hughes Hall, Expert in the Centre for European Legal Studies (CELS), and a Fellow of the Lauterpacht Centre for International Law. In this blog article, he writes about his experience at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan advancing climate law and governance.
International climate negotiations remain, as always, complex and multifaceted. With over 25,000 participants, staying focused on key issues is a considerable challenge, and COP29 in Baku has been no exception. Azerbaijan’s decision to host such a significant event has been criticised by some but is seemingly having a positive impact on the perception of the urgency of climate change in the country. The hosts not only facilitated a smooth conference by asking all to work online or from home for two weeks but also engaged thousands of enthusiastic volunteers to support the COP process. It is hoped that the involvement of so many Azerbaijani youth will inspire them to contribute to global climate efforts and gain valuable insights from the process.
The Green Zone, while somewhat commercial in nature, remains accessible to the public and effectively communicates the urgency of the climate crisis. It also highlights the potential opportunities of a rapid energy transition—a particularly poignant message for a nation like Azerbaijan, whose economy is historically tied to fossil fuel production. Looking ahead, COP30 is set to take place in Brazil, with Australia and Türkiye vying to host COP31. COP32 will be held in Africa, followed by COP33 in India.
Spotlight Climate Finance
A significant focus of the negotiations this year has been on financial commitments, which continue to face challenges. The Paris Agreement delineates financial responsibilities, stating that developing countries *should* (non-binding language), while developed countries *shall* (binding language) contribute. Key points of contention include whether the new Sustainable Development Mechanism qualifies as climate finance and whether emerging economies such as China and the Gulf states should also contribute to these funds.
Considerable attention has been paid in the media to the potential withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement under the new administration. Should this occur, it would take effect on January 20, 2026, though the impact could be mitigated by a potential midterm electoral shift in November 2025. While speculation abounds, discussions at COP29 have not overly emphasised this possibility. The broader multilateral system appears resilient enough to manage further U.S. disengagement, as it has done in the past. It is worth noting that even under the Biden administration, the U.S. was not always seen as a consistently constructive actor in global climate negotiations.
Legal Developments and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Climate law and governance remain central topics as nations face challenges in fully implementing their existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while preparing new, more ambitious ones. All Parties are required to submit updated NDCs by February 10, 2025. Countries like the UK and Brazil have already presented revised and enhanced commitments. To ensure effective implementation, it is recommended that governments integrate these policies into their legal frameworks, including adopting mechanisms such as carbon pricing.
Criticism of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has evolved into a more pragmatic dialogue, with some nations, including Turkey and Brazil, exploring domestic carbon pricing mechanisms. Additionally, the delayed implementation of the EU Anti-Deforestation legislation has been welcomed by various stakeholders.
As the UN climate regime enters what Professor Christina Voigt has described as a “legal super year,” the importance of legal frameworks is gaining heightened attention. New NDCs will need to consider the implications of recent decisions by the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS), the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, and the forthcoming advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The ICJ’s oral hearings in early December will be closely monitored by legal experts and civil society organisations.
Opportunities for Boards and Businesses
The continued urgency of the climate crisis, underscored by the UNEP Gap Report, combined with increasingly stable legal frameworks, presents both challenges and opportunities for boards and companies. Enhanced national ambitions are likely to drive the creation of new markets and business opportunities. The Law and Climate Atlas developed by the Centre for Climate Engagement at Hughes Hall in collaboration with the Net Zero Lawyers Alliance has been instrumental in informing many discussions on these developments. Updates to the UK and US versions will be launched in January 2025.
Highlights from Baku: Events and Collaboration
In partnership with ADA University, which offers the first bilingual law program in English and Azerbaijani, we organised three key events during COP29. Our Climate Law and Governance Day attracted over 3,000 participants, our official UNFCCC side event was well attended, and our specialised course drew over 250 in-person attendees and 400 online participants. These events showcased the importance of collaborative efforts in advancing climate law and governance.
For further information, please visit: www.climatelawgovernance.org or follow mwgehring on twitter or bluesky
Markus W. Gehring, J.S.D. (Yale), LL.M. (Yale), Dr. iur. (Hamburg), MA (Cantab)
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